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December 2006

Polymaths make me ill

453pxisaac_asimov_1 I can't get my head around what some people are capable of achieving in one lifetime.

Take Isaac Asimov for example. Sure, I knew him as a science fiction writer but I didn't know that he "wrote or edited more than 500 books and an estimated 9,000 letters and postcards, and has works in every major category of the Dewey Decimal System except Philosophy."

He was so profilic and such a consummate generalist that Kurt Vonnegut once apparently asked of him: "What does it feel like to know everything?"

(All that and such impressive sideburns too! Though not quite up to the standard of Ambrose Burnside)

Late sleepers make better creatives

70989004_bb55464953_o I spotted an intriguing experiment via the British Psychological Society's Digest which appears to prove that morning people are less creative.

The abstract reports that "an evening disposition is correlated with the ability to apply divergent thinking strategies to visual content". No mention of causality though I notice - maybe divergent thinking makes you sleep in?
 
M. Giampietro and G.M. Cavallera, "Morning Types and Creative Thinking", Personality and Individual Differences, Volume 42, Issue 3, February 2007, Pages 453-463

Picture Credit: Glenderful

Digital fights print in the battle of the embargo

Jaguar

It's been very interesting to see the car blogs and the big name weekly and monthly international car mags fighting it out this last couple of weeks to get scoops on the latest cars.

The relationship between car manufacturers, their PR companies, some of the major U.S. consumer automotive magazines and many of the high profile specialist bloggers has been very tense lately as a succession of car mags broke the embargoes they were given for sharing images of new cars. It seems (from the bloggers perspective - no one else is joining the conversation of course) that the magazines are bending the rules, possibly with the tacit agreement of the manufacturers, in their battle to remain relevant in the face of competition from blogs like Jalopnik, Carscoop and Autoblog.

It all started when Car and Driver broke the embargoes journalists were given by Ford for the Jaguar C-XF (pictured above) and Lincoln MXR concepts by printing them in their February 2007 issue. The pictures hit the street on December 22nd ahead of a Jan 1st embargo.

In protest most of the automotive blogs decided to break the embargo too. However, revealing double-standards, Ford pursued the websites that broke the embargo and insisted that they take down the images whilst Car and Driver remained on sale.

Subsequently it has been reported that another U.S. print publication, Road & Track, has broken an embargo, this time by publishing images of the new 2008 Dodge Viper SR-10 ahead of the Detroit Motor Show. Again the blogs broke rank and published the images (pictured below).

Dodge_viper

In turn, some of the blogs have called for car manufacturers to abandon the ancient protectionist embargo system and instead just send out material when they want it to be released. This would of course severely disadvantage the print publications who need more time than the blogs to publish.

The old publishing business model is really starting to show some cracks, eh.

(And yes, this post was just a pathetic excuse to show some pictures of cars.)

Is British binge drinking on the decline?

The Office for National Statistics recently published data which shows that despite our seasonal excesses binge drinking may be on the decline.

This chart shows the proportion of adults exceeeding recommended daily benchmarks of alcohol on at least one day during the last week in Great Britain:

1027

From the ONS press release:

The proportion of men in Great Britain exceeding the government’s daily sensible drinking benchmarks fell from 39 per cent in 2004 to 35 per cent in 2005. Women are less likely than men to exceed the benchmarks, with 20 per cent of women exceeding the sensible drinking benchmark on at least one day in the previous week in 2005.

In 2005, 72 per cent of men and 57 per cent of women had had an alcoholic drink on at least one day during the previous week.

Government guidelines on sensible drinking are based on daily benchmarks of between three and four units per day for men and two to three units per day for women. In 2006, knowledge of daily benchmarks and measuring alcohol in units had increased among both men and women. The proportion of adults who had heard of daily benchmarks increased from 54 per cent in 1997 to 69 per cent.

They also suggest that there are fewer heavy drinkers - defined as those who have drunk over eight units a day for men and six units a day for women on at least one day during the previous week.

However, it seems that cabinet minister Hazel Blears doesn't appear to have heard this potentially good news and has written us all off as alcoholics. In an interview with the Sunday Times today she says: "I don't know whether we'll ever get to be in a European drinking culture, where you go out and have a single glass of wine. Maybe it's our Anglo-Saxon mentality. We actually enjoy getting drunk. I think there is a bit about risk-taking - people want to push the limits of danger. So as a politician I don't think there are any easy answers."

Methodological note: The ONS do caution that it is becoming harder to get reliable estimates of alcohol consumption from surveys given the increasingly diverse array of drinks of different strengths which have come on to the market in recent years. It is no longer possible for someone to easily approximate the number of units they have drunk based on the number of pints or glasses they have drunk. This was one of the insights behind drink drive campaign posters.

Never underestimate the importance of laughter

"Laughter is the closest distance between two people."

Victor Borge

Oniomania: a compulsion to shop

After my recent post about affluenza, I just read a piece by Agnès Poirier, author of 'Touché, a French woman's take on the English' in the Guardian where she accuses us Britons of being oniomaniacs.

Oniomania

Poirier largely attributes the difference between the French and the British attitudes towards shopping to the ease with which we can access debt in Britain: 

"When I arrived in Britain 10 years ago, I couldn't understand why banks kept offering me credit cards with huge borrowing limits. Why should they want me to spend what I didn't have, I wondered naively. Surely this would lead to disaster, as I wouldn't be able to pay it back."

"In France, what we mistakenly call credit cards are actually debit cards: you spend what you have, and if you don't have it you don't spend it. Banks don't allow overdraft facilities unless you have substantial assets. The same goes for buying a flat: if you don't have a third of the sum in cash then tough, you just can't buy."

"Britain tops the world league for personal insolvencies: 100,000 people filed for bankruptcy in 2006. As for "serious debt", officially it affects only 1 million citizens in Britain, but a report carried out for the Conservative party puts the actual figure at 8 million, with 40% of the population unable to pay off their credit card debts each month."

In a possibly less politically motivated study, two Stanford Medical School researchers found that approximately 6% of people in the U.S. could reasonably be classified as compulsive shoppers based on the responses they gave to a 13 item scale administered by telephone poll.

More research agencies are blogging

Nice to see some more research agencies blogging. They have so much to contribute and yet have remained strangely silent whilst the account planning community has enthusiastically followed John Griffiths (also at Planning Above and Beyond) and Russell Davies into blogging.

Wardle McLean have recently started a blog called Art of Conversation and I look forward to hearing much more from them in future.

Jon Briggs of Taylor Nelson Sofres in Hong Kong has started a blog called Interactive Engagement

Nigel Hollis of Millward Brown has been out there for a while now with some nice thoughtful posts in his capacity as Chief Global Analyst.

Ray Poynter of Virtual Surveys is a prolific blogger and commentator on the future of the research industry at The Future Place

And of course I must mention the fantastic Surinder Siama who runs the Research Talk podcast series and who has done more than anyone else to share the opinions of researchers and get them to become part of the conversation rather than hiding their opinions in industry-specific subscription-only mags like Research.

So, if you have a research blog that I have missed then please do let me know.

Getting confused about RSS feed aggregators

I'm getting very confused as to all the developments that are happening with RSS feed aggregators. Hopefully writing this post will help to clear my head. For both personal and professional reasons I think I may be able to use some of these emerging tools but I just haven't had the time to get my head round them. As soon as I think I am on top of things, another one appears!

From a personal perspective, I am really suffering from TMI / information overload. I currently read about 282 RSS feeds via Bloglines. I read about 50 daily and the rest I try to read about once a week. I am now finding that I am falling behind on some of the more prolific feeds like Boing Boing and Gizmodo to the extent that I don't ever read them because I am so far behind that it would take an hour just to read the entries that I have missed from one blog. I really feel like I need to change how I use blogs now and I am looking to RSS technologies as one answer.

From a professional perspective I would like to find a way of sharing articles with groups of colleagues that is not too intrusive yet which could easily integrate with their daily jobs. Email is far too intrusive but if you just post things to an intranet they tend to be ignored. I want to get to the right balance of push and pull whilst automating whatever I can. Sure, we are lucky enough to have professional services like Lexis Nexis and Factiva but I'm increasingly coming to the conclusion that their day has come and we will soon be able to support most of our news information needs using lower cost web services. These professional news aggregators will either have to better integrate their offering with other web services, lower their prices or risk being passed over.

Firstly, I must admit that I don't think I'm fully utilising all of the functionality within Bloglines, my main feed reader. Ironically I only realised this when I contemplated moving to Google Reader (take a look at this LifeHacker piece which compares the two if you're interested). I never clip (save, star, mark) any entries (I use Delicious for that) and neither do I ever share links via a Bloglines network (I have always seen Bloglines as a product that I would outgrow and have therefore never encouraged others to use it - as such, I have no network on Bloglines).  I would, however, like to share links with others (whether or not they use the same software as me) so I am looking for an aggregator tool that will let me do this - probably using RSS.

One obvious solution would be to set up another blog using Typepad and then use it to create an RSS feed just for this purpose. But I've been reading a lot about some meta-aggregators which may be able to provide a better solution. So in alphabetical order we have ...

Afeeda which allows you to aggregate multiple RSS feeds into one meta feed

Blogbridge adds expert channels (like Squidoo lenses) onto an RSS aggregator but I can't see what else it offers over Bloglines or Google Reader.

Delicious provide a howto which supposedly allows you to create feeds from my Delicious links but I haven't mastered it. Does anyone know how to do this? Surely there is an easier way. Maybe if I point Feed 43 at it?

Feed 43 allows you to create RSS feeds from any websites output. Sounds like it might be a bit hit and miss but it could fill in some of the gaps on your feed needs.

Megite uses your OPML files to build a personalised site like this one Surinder from ResearchTalk uses. Presumably sharing your OPML file will also have benefits somehow?

As you can see I haven't quite mastered this area yet. If anyone has any suggestions on services to explore or ways of solving my RSS needs then I would really appreciate the help ;-)

Pan-European MORI survey on blogging

Gareth Deere, an erstwhile colleague of mine who is now apparently an Executive Manager at IPSOS MORI, recently published this data rich overview of blogging across Europe (.pdf).

The topline data from the research and a bullet point summary can be found here.

Whilst the study was all about understanding the business impact of blogs I was more interested in the basic usage data - especially the data on the very significant proportions of adults 15+ in each country that haven't even heard of blogs or are just aware of the term without knowing anything else.

I've reproduced the full data tabulation below for reference (it's a single code question btw):

Tabulation_2  

Via: 50+ expert Dick Stroud on FutureLabs.

Nb. the version of the presentation linked above is hosted by Loic Le Muir but another version can be found on the IPSOS MORI site here if that link goes down.

Methodological Notes:

•    The survey was carried out among a representative sample of 2,214 adults aged 15+, all of whom access the internet at home or at work.
•    The survey was conducted in five European countries, with 526 interviewed in Great Britain, 440 in France, 485 in Germany, 378 in Italy and 385 in Spain.
•    The survey was conducted using Ipsos MORI's Capibus. Data are weighted.
•    Interviews were conducted face-to-face, in home, in September 2006.

Don't You Wish You Could Remember Everything?

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I found this very interesting Fast Company article today which talks about an experiment called MyLifeBits that Gordon Bell has been running for some time at the Microsoft Research Labs.

MyLifeBits is a lifetime store of everything. It is the fulfillment of Vannevar Bush's Memex vision including full-text search, text & audio annotations, and hyperlinks.

Gordon Bell has captured a lifetime's worth of articles, books, cards, CDs, letters, memos, papers, photos, pictures, presentations, home movies, videotaped lectures, and voice recordings and stored them digitally. He is now paperless, and is beginning to capture phone calls, IM transcripts, television, and radio.

Vannevar Bush, science advisor to President Roosevelt,  published a ground-breaking article in Atlantic Monthly in 1945 called As We May Think which introduced the world to the Memex. He was seeking a solution to the problem that still faces many individuals and companies today: how to manage all the information that is potentially available to us. His seminal article is still well worth a read today to anyone interested in learning, knowledge industries, psychology, blogging or the internet.

From Bush's article in 1945:

"The summation of human experience is being expanded at a prodigious rate, [but] the means we use for threading through the consequent maze to the momentarily important item is the same as was used in the days of square-rigged ships."

Bush wrote of the memex being "a conceptual machine that could store vast amounts of information, in which a user had the ability to create information "trails": links of related text and illustrations". This trail could then be stored and used for future reference. Bush believed that using this associative method of information gathering was not only practical in its own right, but was closer to the way the mind ordered information. Well, due to the increased capability of technology today, we are of course close to achieving this vision. As per Gordon Bell's experiment, we will soon be able to theoretically capture, store and retrieve everything that has happened to us in our lives.

The implications of this explosion in data capture and storage have been widely explored. The most significant change would of course be that we would have, at our fingertips, everything we have ever experienced. If we can retrieve this information efficiently we would therefore be much more knowledgeable. Rather than relying on what we can remember we will be able to seek out knowledge from our memex as long as we can remember what to search for. Bush saw this as empowering many professional decision-making processes, for example:

"The lawyer has at his touch the associated opinions and decisions of his whole experience, and of the experience of friends and authorities. The patent attorney has on call the millions of issued patents, with familiar trails to every point of his client's interest. The physician, puzzled by its patient's reactions, strikes the trail established in studying an earlier similar case, and runs rapidly through analogous case histories, with side references to the classics for the pertinent anatomy and histology. The chemist, struggling with the synthesis of an organic compound, has all the chemical literature before him in his laboratory, with trails following the analogies of compounds, and side trails to their physical and chemical behavior. The historian, with a vast chronological account of a people, parallels it with a skip trail which stops only at the salient items, and can follow at any time contemporary trails which lead him all over civilization at a particular epoch."

Bush also saw that the memex could be a tool for learning and making connections:

"The owner of the memex, let us say, is interested in the origin and properties of the bow and arrow. Specifically he is studying why the short Turkish bow was apparently superior to the English long bow in the skirmishes of the Crusades. He has dozens of possibly pertinent books and articles in his memex. First he runs through an encyclopaedia, finds an interesting but sketchy article, leaves it projected. Next, in a history, he finds another pertinent item, and ties the two together. Thus he goes, building a trail of many items. Occasionally he inserts a comment of his own, either linking it into the main trail or joining it by a side trail to a particular item. When it becomes evident that the elastic properties of available materials had a great deal to do with the bow, he branches off on a side trail, which takes him through textbooks on elasticity and tables of physical constants. He inserts a page of longhand analysis of his own. Thus he builds a trail of his interest through the maze of materials available to him."

Intriguingly, Bush also suggests the growth of a certain type of knowledge worker, those that make connections for others. We might consider these people to be Memex-builders, those who create a "knowledge trail" for the rest of us to follow. Bush calls them trail blazers:

"There is a new profession of trail blazers, those who find delight in the task of establishing useful trails through the enormous mass of the common record. The inheritance from the master becomes, not only his additions to the world's record, but for his disciples the entire scaffolding by which they were erected."

The Memex concept is fascinating. Whilst I was unaware of Bush's work at the time, my ambitions for this blog were in some ways similar to the memex concept: I wanted this blog to become a repository for all the things I found of interest.

The key difference between Bell's MyLifeBits or Christian Lindholm's LifeBlog concept and this blog, however, is that I have had to be very selective. Where they have both tried to record every aspect of their lives, I have selected only a few of the things I have read, experienced or thought about partly because I felt it would be unmanageable to post too much. I wonder if that will change as time goes on?

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